Cereals, milk and sunflower oil are the products that have undergone greater increases in the first months of 2022. This is the data that comes out of the analysis conducted by the Italian Commodity Exchange starting from the data on wholesale prices to outline a picture of the most affected agri-food products and sectors from inflation in early 2022.
These increases are the result of a series of causes of different nature, some of which were present in the markets even before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In addition to increase in energy prices starting from the second half of 2021 there had been substantial increases in agri-food products supported by recovery of post-pandemic world demand, from criticality of logistics e from the impact of adverse weather conditions.
The crisis in the durum wheat-semolina-pasta supply chain, for example, had already started in 2021 when there was a sharp increase in flour prices due to the drought that hit Canada. A situation that has therefore worsened at present due to the strong tensions generated by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: to the grain blocked in the Black Sea ports, there are fears about the negative impact of the unfavorable weather conditions recorded in many global production areas (Northern Europe, North America).
The same goes for vegetable oils, conditioned by the difficulties in the supply of sunflower oil from the Black Sea and for the dairy sector, where already last year there was a sharp rise in the price of milk and butter, due not only to the decrease in production but also to the increase in the cost of energy, feed and fodder.
The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has therefore accentuated pre-existing tensions, in particular for some products - such as cereals and oilseeds - at the base of many agricultural and livestock supply chains, for which the Black Sea region represents a strategic production area and world export.
